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Support is growing for the Lisbon Treaty
Sunday, February 01, 2009 By Richard Colwell
What a difference a year makes to public opinion on the Lisbon Treaty. Today’s poll sees support for the treaty surge, with 67 per cent of those who say they are likely to vote in the treaty rerun later this year saying that they will vote Yes. This leaves just 33 per cent of those likely to vote stating that they will vote against the treaty.

In analysing the results it is apparent that 20-25 per cent of those who voted No to the treaty last year now state that they are unlikely to vote in a second referendum. Those who voted Yes last time are much more likely to turn out and vote again.

A further 20 per cent of those who voted No last time now suggest that they have changed their mind and will voteYes when the referendum is held again.

However, it is important to note that this voting intention is before any campaign has been run, and before the public are clear on what guarantees, if any, the government has secured with relation to the concerns raised at the last vote.

It should also be mentioned that, in January last year, 64 per cent of those who had made up their minds also stated that they would vote Yes at that time, albeit with a much higher proportion undecided.

The results today, therefore, suggest that the treaty is likely to be ratified, as long as the government gains some assurances on the issues which concerned the public so much at the last treaty, and does not become complacent due to the positive poll result.

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