FF subjected to a good thrashing, but not a revolution Sunday, June 21, 2009 Two weeks after Fianna Fáil’s electoral meltdown, everyone agrees that things have changed, but no one really seems to know exactly how.
It was seismic, unprecedented, historic and devastating - or whatever adjective suits the purpose of describing a once-in-70-years reversal in the fortunes of what is still, but maybe not for long, our largest political party.
But, and this is a very big but, you certainly couldn’t call it revolutionary. No leaders have changed, no uprisings have been reported, and the same teams are on the pitch; it’s just that their numbers have changed.
Other countries are getting to grips with the reality that sizeable proportions of their populations are now voting for borderline fascist groups. We’re well used to hearing stories about the French National Front, Italian rightists and various exotic versions of colouredshirt-loving groups in other countries.
What is new is the extension of this into new countries. Most surprisingly, in our closest neighbour’s elections, parties which collectively advocate destroying the European Union and blaming foreigners for everything won a quarter of the vote.
In comparison to this, our results are a model of centrist continuity. With rapidly rising unemployment, falling incomes and a large immigrant population Ireland should have been receptive to extreme agendas of the right and left, yet showed no interest in them.
A close look at the results showed that the electorate split its ‘protest vote’ roughly evenly between centre right and centre left - leaving a lot to play for in the next election.
The largest winner in seats terms was Fine Gael, a party which hasn’t had an ideology since it stopped trying to be more Catholic than the hierarchy 30 years ago. It is a comfortable, middle-class and farming party which has learned the art of expressing anger even when it basically agrees with the policy it is attacking.
A claim of greater managerial competence is about as radical as it gets.
Labour was also a big winner - in fact, you could argue that it has gained the greatest momentum from the elections because it has finally put in place a set of young and credible candidates to replace ageing TDs, and to target pick-ups.
Eamon Gilmore - who was once a student firebrand as well as a leading member in Sinn Féin the Workers’ Party and its successors - is proving to be a very effective leader.
What he seems to understand is that, first and foremost, Labour must be visible on the ground. A big effort to increase leafleting and support candidates has had an undoubted impact. Then there has been the decision to take a solidly populist stand on major decisions, such as the deposit guarantee and public sector levy.
Whenever possible support for tough decisions has been withheld and the magic formula of ‘‘the rich should pay more’’ has been deployed with increasing abandon.
Unlike the 1980s and 1990s, Labour has worked hard to leave as little room as possible on its left flank for a significant protest party to emerge. This was the role Sinn Féin saw for itself and, five years ago, it was seen by many as an almost unstoppable machine.
At a time when the crisis is having a big impact on Sinn Féin’s target communities, it gained no new seats. With the post-election resignation of Christy Burke from the party, it is today actually weaker than it was five years ago.
Taken together with the other setbacks of the disappointing 2007 general election, the loss of Mary Lou McDonald’s European seat and the failure of European candidate Pádraig Mac Lochlainn to win a seat, Sinn Féin is at a low point.
Some would say that Joe Higgins’ election to the European Parliament was radical but, in reality, it reflects more on the standing of McDonald than a rush of support to the Socialist Party, which had a disappointing local election. Outside of Fine Gael and Labour the only other grouping which made significant gains were those who stressed local issues above all else. They represent many things, but a threat to the system isn’t one of them.
Some, like the four new People Before Profit Alliance councillors, are certainly radicals who are bent on overthrowing the establishment.
Most of PBPA’s activists are members of the hardly mild Socialist Workers Party. However, its activism on highly local issues always forms the core of its campaigns.
A close look at our ‘political earthquake’ doesn’t show a radicalised public and seething revolutionary sentiment. If there’s one thing you can be sure of, it is that if this sentiment existed, then a party would have rapidly offered itself as the vehicle for expressing it.
What we’ve actually seen is an angry public which has given the government a good hiding. The same public is receptive to hearing politicians express this anger on their behalf, though is absolutely committed to moderate parliamentary politics.
This may, of course, change in the next few years if the government has to reduce social welfare and if there is a serious rise in poverty.
For the time being, we look as if we’re headed for a Fine Gael/Labour coalition headed by the longest-serving member of the Dáil, with a humbled Fianna Fáil as the largest opposition party by a long way.
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