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Kenny in the Niamh spotlight
07 February 2010 By Niamh Connolly, Political Correspondent
Fine Gael TDs are privately voicing concerns that another dip in the party’s support in polls to be taken later this month would cause jitters over Enda Kenny’s leadership.
Despite one of the harshest budgets in recent history, record unemployment and an unpopular bank bailout costing taxpayers billions of euro, Fianna Fáil’s support rose by 4 per cent to 27 per cent in last weekend’s Sunday Business Post/Red C poll.
The result was greeted with a mixture of bewilderment and frustration by some Fine Gael deputies, and dismissed by others as a new year quirk.
For the past number of years, the government has had a poll boost in January, as opposition parties are usually starved of publicity during the Christmas recess.
But the bulk of Fine Gael TDs who spoke to this newspaper were concerned that a further slide for the party would mark an early resurgence that could allow Fianna Fáil miraculously to claw its way back in the next election.
The gap between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael almost halved from 13 per cent in November to 7 per cent in last weekend’s poll.
Amid record unemployment, social welfare cuts and public sector disruption, Fine Gael support dropped two percentage points to 34 per cent.
This marginal drop is significant, as it may mark the start of a gradual slide in support for Fine Gael in advance of the next general election. It has, inevitably, touched a raw nerve over the leadership.
‘‘Our party leader has a major credibility issue - and it’s getting worse," one Fine Gael TD told this newspaper. ‘‘Every member of the parliamentary party knows it, but there’s an enormous amount of denial in Fine Gael, and there has been for some time."
While the TDs heap praise on Kenny’s integrity and commitment, there is concern that the electorate does not believe he can be taoiseach.
Aside from the unreliability of January polls, Fine Gael TDs believe an enormous wave of sympathy for Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan over his cancer diagnosis may have contributed to the result.
Others said Kenny’s recent media performances had not helped their poll ratings. ‘‘January was not good for Kenny - he had a poor performance on The Late Late Show, and then there was the Newstalk interview a couple of weeks ago," said one Fine Gael TD.
Kenny’s pledge on The Late Late Show not to rely on Sinn Féin support in an election was seen as a tactical mistake, since the party will need Sinn Féin for transfers in border counties.
Far more fundamental was Kenny’s failure to gel with the Late Late audience - in contrast to his personable manner off-camera. While some TDs said broadcaster Ryan Tubridy’s robust line of questioning bordered on the aggressive, Kenny’s failure to bond with the studio audience - and, by extension, the electorate - epitomised his credibility problem.
Whether the leader had been over-handled by advisers was a moot point in the view of some TDs.
‘‘This is not about the poll. We know what has been going on for some time, which is that he hasn’t made anything close to the impact that he should have on the electorate," said a Fine Gael deputy.
‘‘The electorate is passing Enda by because of the enormity of the financial crisis in the past couple of years, and people are now looking for something completely different." he said.
More experienced party hands insist that it would be ridiculous to panic, as Fianna Fáil’s support levels had to rise from last year’s historic low. The disappointment is that the boost came so soon.
‘‘Fianna Fáil could never stay where it was, at a low of 23 per cent. Its support has never gone below 30 per cent in any general election. But such small recoveries may now become a trend," said a Fine Gael TD.
‘‘The next poll will be the one that tells a lot," he said, a comment echoed by most TDs who spoke to this newspaper on a confidential basis.
However, this view was not shared by Fine Gael’s electoral strategist, Frank Flannery. He said that ‘‘TDs should not be worried, as this is a long game’’ and, in any case, a trend only registered after two polls.
‘‘It’s the team that is the most confident and competent that will win this one, but it is yet to be won.
The party should keep its nerve and do its duty in providing a competent, exciting alternative to this government, and to help the country climb out of this hole," said Flannery, director of the party’s organisation and strategy.
‘‘The effects of the budget haven’t even begun to be felt, nor have the social welfare cuts. Unemployment will continue to increase because of the government’s failed policies." Asked about Kenny’s recent media performances, Flannery dismissed the issue as a non-factor.
‘‘Enda is a solid performer, and one or two interviews are of marginal significance. In the course of a year, he’ll do 50 or 60 of them," he said.
Fine Gael has led the polls for 12 months, while Fianna Fáil ‘‘has a long way to climb’’ to get to the minimum 38 per cent of the vote needed to win an election, Flannery said.
Clearly, a general election held in the foreseeable future would return a Fine Gael/Labour Party coalition. Labour’s 17 per cent for the past two polls means the two parties would gain the support of 51 per cent of the electorate.
However, the political landscape could be less predictable if, by next year, the economy starts to recover, unemployment abates and consumer confidence grows.
In times of doubt, the leadership question arises - along with speculation whether the party could possibly change horses, as it did on three occasions with John Bruton, Alan Dukes and Michael Noonan.
But Kenny retains strong loyalty, is liked and respected inside the party for his hard work - and there are no signs of a heave.
His supporters describe him as a team player, and his organisational skills are credited for the party’s recovery after the 2002 election disaster.
Kenny’s deputy leader, Richard Bruton, has been described as a gentleman who would be unwilling to entertain a coup, and the absence of obvious candidates means the party would need to skip a generation to find a new leader.
Even if there is no shortage of ambitious new blood in the party - such as Leo Varadkar, Brian Hayes and former RTE economics editor George Lee - the longer-serving deputies would hardly countenance a takeover by newcomers. Kenny’s supporters insist that any doubts will be dispelled by the next poll.
‘‘I have no doubt that this is a once-off drop which will be arrested as soon as the full impact of the budget is felt this month," said one Fine Gael deputy this weekend.
But the leader may have to take steps to reassure the electorate and his own party that he has confidence to be a future Taoiseach.
When internal rumblings became audible last year, Kenny made a shock announcement that Fine Gael in government would hold a referendum to axe the Seanad, without prior consultation with senators or TDs.
It was a bold move that caused consternation in the party, grabbed headlines and won public support, while also distracting the party’s naysayers.
Party insiders expect a similar manoeuvre to calm frayed nerves ahead of the next poll.
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